<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2076-054X</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Población y Desarrollo ]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Poblac.Desarro.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2076-054X</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONÓMICAS- UNA]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2076-054X2018004700047</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18004/pdfce/2076-054x/2018.024(47)047-057</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Transición demográfica y política fiscal en Brasil, Estados Unidos, México y Japón]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Demographic transition and fiscal policy in Brazil, United States, Mexico and Japan]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Roitbarg]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Hernán Alejandro]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidad Nacional del Litoral Facultad de Ciencias Económicas ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Santa Fé ]]></addr-line>
<country>Argentina</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2018</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>24</volume>
<numero>47</numero>
<fpage>47</fpage>
<lpage>57</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2076-054X2018004700047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2076-054X2018004700047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2076-054X2018004700047&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN La investigación estudia los efectos estructurales de una política fiscal rígida en el contexto de la transición demográfica que se experimenta en la sociedad contemporánea. La importancia del tema se justifica por su vigencia coyuntural, la ausencia de análisis comparados y la pertinencia metodológica. A partir del Modelo demand-pull de Leontief se estudian escenarios a 2031 teniendo en cuenta; política económica, transición demográfica, distribución de los gastos y tecnología. Se identifican efectos directos e indirectos en la producción total, el valor agregado y las importaciones intermedias para Brasil, México, Japón y EE. UU. Los resultados no indican una relación con el grado de desarrollo de los países, pero sí entre la configuración institucional y los cambios demográficos. Los efectos meso-agregados establecen concentración en el sector terciario y en la industria, pero sin un patrón estructural definido. Por último, se destacan dos efectos que sintetizan las consecuencias de la medida; el &#8216;efecto magnitud&#8217; y el &#8216;efecto proporción&#8217;. Los hallazgos de este estudio contribuyen a comprender aspectos básicos de la compleja relación entre economía, instituciones y demografía. Una política económica de rigidez en el gasto público siempre presenta a priori un efecto magnitud de carácter recesivo. Por otro lado, no es posible asignar al cambio en la proporción del gasto público un efecto económico neto ni una correlación de este con el grado de desarrollo de los países.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Recently, there has been growing interest in fiscal policy and the effect of demographic transition. However, few studies has shown relationships without hard assumptions about economic growth. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of a rigid fiscal policy in the context of the demographic transition experienced in Latin America by input output approach. To determine direct and indirect effects we analyzed scenarios based on the Leontief's demand-pull model. The scenarios were studied in 2031, considering economic policy, demographic transition, the distribution of expenditures and technology. Thus, were identified direct and indirect effects on total production, added value and intermediate imports for Brazil, Mexico, Japan and the United States. The results do not show a relationship with the degree of development of the countries, but rather between institutional and demographics&#8217; configuration. The mesa-aggregate effects are accumulated in the tertiary sector and in the industry without defined structural pattern. Finally, it is saw the effects that synthesize the consequences of the measure; the 'magnitude effect' and the 'proportion effect'. The findings of this study could contribute to know the complex relationship between economy, institutions and demographic. In particular, the economic policy of rigidity in public expenditure always presents a recessive magnitude effect a priori. On the other hand, it is also highlighted that it is not possible to assign a relationship between change in the proportion of public spending and a net economic effect or a correlation with the degree of development of the countries.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[rigidez fiscal]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[transición demográfica]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[efectos económicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Leontief]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[fiscal rigidity]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[demographic transition]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[economic effects]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Leontief]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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</article>
