<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>2664-2891</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Revista científica ciencias de la salud]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Rev. cient. cienc. salud]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>2664-2891</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Universidad del Pacífico]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S2664-28912024000100027</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.53732/rccsalud/2024.e6155</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay: 2020 - 2022]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Schneider]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Andreas]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Autor independiente  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Asunción ]]></addr-line>
<country>Paraguay</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>00</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>6</volume>
<fpage>27</fpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S2664-28912024000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S2664-28912024000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.iics.una.py/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S2664-28912024000100027&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[ABSTRACT Introduction. Few studies examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay. Objective. Quantifying the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on all-cause mortality in Paraguay between 2020 and 2022. Material and Method. A custom Bayesian structural time series analysis with autoregressive (AR1) and seasonal components was used to predict counterfactual counts of all-cause mortality and compute excess death. Results. Paraguay reported 122,360 all-cause deaths between 2020-22, compared to an expected 88,988 deaths had the pandemic not occurred, a relative excess mortality of 38%. It is likely that Paraguay undercounted COVID-19 related deaths in the first year of the pandemic. Conclusion. The results presented in this paper extended the knowledge on the impact of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality in the context of Paraguay, being a valuable decision tool for public policy makers. Overall, Paraguay presented good quality of all-cause mortality data, however, high excess mortality should raise concern. Further research is needed to shed light on gender-specific, age-structural or geographical differences and to further identify inequalities.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[RESUMEN Introducción. Pocos estudios han examinado el impacto de la pandemia de COVID-19 en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Paraguay. Objetivo. Cuantificar el impacto de la pandemia por coronavirus en la mortalidad por todas las causas en Paraguay entre 2020 y 2022. Materiales y Método. Se utilizó un análisis de series temporales estructurales Bayesiana personalizado con componentes autorregresivos (AR1) y estacionales para predecir recuentos contrafactuales de mortalidad por todas las causas y calcular el exceso de mortalidad. Resultados. Paraguay reportó 122.360 muertes por todas las causas entre 2020-22, en comparación con las 88.988 muertes esperadas si no hubiera ocurrido la pandemia, un exceso de mortalidad relativa del 38%. Es probable que Paraguay subestimó las muertes relacionadas con el COVID-19 en el primer año de la pandemia. Conclusión. Los resultados presentados en este trabajo ampliaron el conocimiento sobre el impacto del COVID-19 en la mortalidad por todas las causas en el contexto de Paraguay, siendo una valiosa herramienta de decisión para los responsables de las políticas públicas. Sin embargo, son necesarias más investigaciones para arrojar luz sobre las diferencias de género y de estructura etaria.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[all-cause mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[excess mortality]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Covid-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Paraguay]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[mortalidad por todas las causas]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[exceso de mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Covid-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Paraguay]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
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