Resumo

ROITBARG, Hernán Alejandro. Demographic transition and fiscal policy in Brazil, United States, Mexico and Japan. Poblac.Desarro. [online]. 2018, vol.24, n.47, pp.47-57. ISSN 2076-054X.  https://doi.org/10.18004/pdfce/2076-054x/2018.024(47)047-057.

Recently, there has been growing interest in fiscal policy and the effect of demographic transition. However, few studies has shown relationships without hard assumptions about economic growth. The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of a rigid fiscal policy in the context of the demographic transition experienced in Latin America by input output approach. To determine direct and indirect effects we analyzed scenarios based on the Leontief's demand-pull model. The scenarios were studied in 2031, considering economic policy, demographic transition, the distribution of expenditures and technology. Thus, were identified direct and indirect effects on total production, added value and intermediate imports for Brazil, Mexico, Japan and the United States. The results do not show a relationship with the degree of development of the countries, but rather between institutional and demographics’ configuration. The mesa-aggregate effects are accumulated in the tertiary sector and in the industry without defined structural pattern. Finally, it is saw the effects that synthesize the consequences of the measure; the 'magnitude effect' and the 'proportion effect'. The findings of this study could contribute to know the complex relationship between economy, institutions and demographic. In particular, the economic policy of rigidity in public expenditure always presents a recessive magnitude effect a priori. On the other hand, it is also highlighted that it is not possible to assign a relationship between change in the proportion of public spending and a net economic effect or a correlation with the degree of development of the countries.

Palavras-chave : fiscal rigidity; demographic transition; economic effects; Leontief.

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