Resumo

VERA BOWER, Lorenzo Octavio  e  JARA LOPEZ, Vidal Reneé. Soya export tax, a mechanism to reduce poverty?. Poblac.Desarro. [online]. 2018, vol.24, n.46, pp.50-61. ISSN 2076-054X.  https://doi.org/10.18004/pdfce/2076-054x/2018.024(46).050-061.

The present work has the objective to quantify the ex-ante economic impact of the introduction of the soya export tax in Paraguay’s economy. The issue presented is that the revenue resulted from this tax is transferred to households pertaining to the two lowest quintiles in rural areas.For the objective mentioned above, multiple simulations are considered, these are based on computable general equilibrium model (CGE) recursive and dynamic. This model uses data from Paraguay’s social accounting matrix, following the process according to Santander & Cicowiez (2015). Two possible scenarios for the implementation of the tax are considered, one with soy export tax of 10% and another with 15%. Both are introduced since 2018 and results are extended to 2030. Results suggest that in the long run, extreme poverty decrease significantly; nevertheless, the reduction of total poverty is not as significant to 2030. On the other hand, it is observed a reduction of the growth rate of the gross domestic product, accompanied by contractions in exports and imports, showing a deterioration of the economy at macroeconomic level.

Palavras-chave : general equilibrium model; export restrictions; poverty; soya.

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