Abstract

JARA LOPEZ, Vidal René  and  VERA BOWER, Lorenzo Octavio. Paraguay’s infrastructure gap; how much to invest in roads?. Poblac.Desarro. [online]. 2018, vol.24, n.46, pp.2-11. ISSN 2076-054X.  https://doi.org/10.18004/pdfce/2076-054x/2018.024(46).002-011.

This study has the objective to measure Paraguay’s road infrastructure gap. When it is talked about infrastructure gap, it means a difference (positive or negative) between a real scenario against a potential scenario. Paraguay’s potential scenario is performed in an international context, where based on cross sectional data, estimation of a regression model is performed. This model contains data of 55 countries and allows to perform horizontal gap. In a second stage, based on time series data, an ARIMA model is used, with this it is possible to identify the infrastructure demand’s behavior in the long run (2018-2030), which allows to know how much to invest anually in order to close the horizontal gap. Data were collected from World Bank, CIA World Factbook and FAO, also from Paraguay’s Ministry of Public Works and Communications (MOPC), and Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP). Results show that in the long run, that is, from 2018 to 2030, Paraguay need to invest 17373 millions USD, in order to close the gap in roads infrastructure.

Keywords : road,; regression; investment.

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