Abstract

ARBO, Antonio; SANABRIA, Gabriela  and  MARTINEZ, Celia. Influence of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases. Rev. Inst. Med. Trop. [online]. 2022, vol.17, n.2, pp.23-36. ISSN 1996-3696.  https://doi.org/10.18004/imt/2022.17.2.4.

Ecological changes strongly influence disease patterns. In this century, climatic instability and progressive warming are playing an increasing role in the emergence of new infectious diseases, as well as in the reappearance and redistribution of neglected infections. The objective was to analyze and contrast the interrelation of climate, rainfall and temperature, with dengue epidemics, an arbovirosis that has become a terrible scourge in our country.

Methodology: Descriptive, observational study, where the number of dengue cases during the years 2012, 2013 and 2014, were counteracted with the monthly average rainfall and the average monthly temperature in the same period of time. Both the data on the number of dengue cases per month, as well as the average data on rainfall and temperature in each month were correlated, estimating the statistical significance by calculating the Pearson correlation coefficient.

Results: During the 3 years of the study, a characteristic pattern of occurrence was found, presenting an increase in dengue cases between the months of December and May with a maximum peak between February and April. The mean rainfall predominated globally in the first semester of each year, although it presented some annual differences. The increase in the number of dengue cases was clearly influenced by climatic variations in both temperature, with an increase in dengue cases with temperatures between 20 and 25ºC and rain fall. When analyzing the influence of both climatic variables separately, it was possible to observe that the main factor that was correlated with dengue cases was the amount of rainfall (Pearson's r of 0.6214), and to a lesser extent temperature (Pearson's r of 0.6214). 0.4082).

Conclusion: A correlation of dengue cases in Paraguay with climatic variables is observed, mainly the rate of rainfall, showing the great impact of climate on the occurrence of dengue epidemics.

Keywords : Vector Borne Diseases; Disease Vectors; Climate Change; Arbovirus Infections; Dengue.

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