Resumo

VILLASANTTI, Richard et al. Population estimate of the Jaguareté in the Alto Paraná Atlantic Forest in the period 2021 to 2025. Rep. cient. FACEN [online]. 2023, vol.14, n.2, pp.148-155. ISSN 2222-145X.  https://doi.org/10.18004/rcfacen.2023.14.2.148.

The Alto Paraná Atlantic Forest (BAAP) constitutes a forest ecoregion shared by the countries of Paraguay, Brazil and Argentina, being home to a great variety of animal species, including the Panthera onca (Jaguareté). In Paraguay, this animal is listed as critically endangered due to poaching, illegal trade and the loss of its habitat due to deforestation, which has caused its population to not grow in quantity, which is why the 3 BAAP countries They have coordinated and taken joint actions for conservation and the species has been protected, achieving an increase in its population in recent years. For this reason, in order to project the population of the Jaguareté into the future, mathematical tools such as software have been used. OriginPro for the calculation of interpolation polynomials and extrapolated values as well as the Vensim software with the Euler integration method that has allowed a simulation of the number of animals until the year 2025, the results projected by the Spline method and the simulation with Vensim shows a tendency to increase in the Jaguareté population for the following 3 years, while using the method linear there is a possible scenario which projects a decrease in the animal population.

Palavras-chave : Jaguareté; simulation; interpolation; extrapolation; Vensim.

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